Yen Poised to Extend Gains as US GDP Fails to Ease Growth Fears

Friday, April 26, 20130 comments


  • Quiet European Calendar Shifts Spotlight to 1Q US GDP Report
  • Japanese Yen to Rise if US Growth Gain Fails to Boost Risk Trends
  • A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see the markets looking ahead to the first-quarter US GDP report. Expectations suggest output grew at an annualized pace of 3 percent, marking a strong recovery from the paltry 0.4 percent increase recorded in the three months through December 2012. The outcome may not offer much support to risk appetite absent a meaningful upside surprise however.
    Much of the weakness that has recently spooked the markets about the prospects for US recovery has come from March data. That means the cumulative GDP figure will be inherently skewed toward the far more encouraging results seen in the first two months of the year. This is arguably old news at this point and may not alleviate worries about another coordinated global downturn in the pipeline.
    Indeed, S&P 500 futures are pointing lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting at a risk-averse mood heading into the GDP announcement. The standout result following a print that fails to underpin sentiment is likely to be a further recovery in the Japanese Yen as an unwinding of carry trades encourages gains in the go-to funding currency. The unit is already on the upswing following astatus-quo BOJ policy announcement overnight.
    Asia Session:
    GMT
    CCY
    EVENT
    ACT
    EXP
    PREV
    22:45
    NZD
    Trade Balance (NZ$) (MAR)
    718M
    470M
    414M
    22:45
    NZD
    Exports (NZ$) (MAR)
    4.42B
    4.28B
    3.90B
    22:45
    NZD
    Imports (NZ$) (MAR)
    3.70B
    3.82B
    3.46B
    22:45
    NZD
    Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (MAR)
    -525M
    -883M
    -1057M
    23:30
    JPY
    National CPI (YoY) (MAR)
    -0.9%
    -0.8%
    -0.7%
    23:30
    JPY
    National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)
    -0.5%
    -0.4%
    -0.3%
    23:30
    JPY
    National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)
    -0.8%
    -0.8%
    -0.9%
    23:30
    JPY
    Tokyo CPI (YoY) (APR)
    -0.7%
    -0.8%
    -1.0%
    23:30
    JPY
    Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)
    -0.3%
    -0.4%
    -0.5%
    23:30
    JPY
    Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)
    -0.7%
    -0.7%
    -0.8%
    1:35
    CNY
    MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (APR)
    58.5
    -
    58.2
    4:45
    JPY
    Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision
    0.10%
    -
    0.10%
    Euro Session:
    GMT
    CCY
    EVENT
    EXP/ACT
    PREV
    IMPACT
    6:00
    EUR
    German Import Price Index (MoM) (APR)
    -0.1% (A)
    0.3%
    Low
    6:00
    EUR
    German Import Price Index (YoY) (APR)
    -2.3% (A)
    -1.6%
    Low
    6:45
    EUR
    French Consumer Confidence Indicator (APR)
    84 (A)
    84
    Low
    7:00
    CHF
    KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (APR)
    1.02 (A)
    1.00
    Medium
    8:00
    EUR
    Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (MAR)
    2.6% (A)
    3.1%
    Low
    8:00
    EUR
    Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (MAR)
    3.0% (A)
    3.4%
    Low
    Critical Levels:
    CCY
    SUPPORT
    RESISTANCE
    EURUSD
    1.2969
    1.3074
    GBPUSD
    1.5306
    1.5521
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