Forex Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends

Thursday, April 18, 20130 comments



Forex traders are focused on growth-themed rhetoric emerging from a G20 summit in Washington DC amid lingering fears about a faltering global recovery.
Talking Points
  • FX Markets Look to G20 Summit to Guide Risk Sentiment Trends
  • Pound Unlikely to Find Significant Volatility in UK Retail Sales Data
The spotlight is on a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, with traders watching the newswires for leaks from the draft communiqué due to emerge at the end of the two-day summit. Policymakers are likely to toe a familiar line on exchange rates, sounding off against competitive devaluation but falling short of offering any detailed measures or singling out specific offenders.
Comments on the state of the global recovery offer greater market-moving potential in the context of mounting concerns that erupted into large-scale risk aversion at the start of the week. Supportive rhetoric is likely to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts (and vice versa).
On the data front, UK Retail Sales figures headline the docket in European trading hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year growth rate to slow to 0.9 percent in March after yielding the largest increase in nearly five years in the prior month. The outcome has been amply foreshadowed by an analogous metric from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) last week and so seems unlikely to yield a lasting response from the British Pound absent a major deviation from expectations.

Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:00
NZD
ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (MAR)
0.7%
-
1.8%
23:50
JPY
Merchandise Trade Balance Total (¥) (MAR)
-362.4B
-522.2B
-779.5B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (¥)(MAR)
-922.0B
-934.5B
-1092.5B
23:50
JPY
Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (MAR)
5.5%
6.3%
11.9%
23:50
JPY
Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAR)
1.1%
0.2%
-2.9%
1:00
NZD
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)
119.2
-
114.8
1:00
NZD
ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)
3.8%
-
-5.1%
1:30
AUD
RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (MAR)
577M
-
328M
1:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (MAR)
71M
-
26M
1:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Govt. (A$) (MAR)
-624M
-
-345M
1:30
AUD
NAB Business Confidence (1Q)
2
-
-5
2:00
CNY
Actual FDI (YoY) (MAR)
5.7%
1.9%
6.3%
4:00
JPY
Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)
48.4%
-
-10.9%
5:30
JPY
Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)
3.9%
-
0.3%
5:30
JPY
Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)
6.4%
-
2.5%
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
-
-
G20 FinMin and CB Governors’ Meeting – Day 1
-
-
High
8:30
EUR
Spain to Sell 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds
-
-
Low
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)
-0.6%
1.9%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)
0.9%
3.3%
Medium
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)
-0.6%
2.1%
Low
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)
-0.2%
2.6%
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian Current Account (€) (FEB)
-
-4607M
Low
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
EURUSD
1.2956
1.3154
GBPUSD
1.5179
1.5335

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