Euro Looks to German CPI to Set Stage for ECB Rate Decision

Monday, April 29, 20130 comments





Talking Points
  • Euro Looks to German CPI Data to Set Stage for ECB Rate Decision
  • US Dollar Drops, Yen Outperforms as Asia Responds to US GDP Miss
April’s preliminary set of German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to hold at 1.4 percent, matching a 28-month low recorded in the prior month. Traders are likely to see the release as setting the stage for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. With that in mind, a soft print stands to bolster calls for an interest rate cut and weigh on the Euro. Needless to say, the same dynamics are likely to push the single currency higher in the event of an upside surprise.
The US Dollar faced broad-based selling pressure in overnight trade as Asian markets took their turn to respond to Friday’s disappointing US GDP report, betting yet another soft data point will underpin continuity of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary stimulus efforts. The outcome likewise carried negative implications for risk sentiment, feeding fears about the implications of sluggish performance in the world’s largest economy for the global recovery at large. This sent the regional benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific stock index lower and helped the Japanese Yen outperform against its counterparts as the dour mood encouraged an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency.
Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (APR)
0.2%
-
0.0%
23:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (APR)
0.3%
-
0.3%
23:01
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (APR)
27
-
20
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (APR)
89.3
90.0
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (APR)
-0.91
-0.86
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (APR)
-13.5
-12.5
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (APR F)
-22.3
-22.3
Medium
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Services Confidence (APR)
-7.1
-6.7
Low
12:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (APR P)
-0.2%
0.5%
High
12:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (APR P)
1.4%
1.4%
High
12:00
EUR
German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR P)
-0.1%
0.4%
High
12:00
EUR
German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR P)
1.7%
1.8%
High
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
EURUSD
1.2998
1.3080
GBPUSD
1.5429
1.5544

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